Deloitte Analysis: Ghana Set to end 2025 with a single digit inflation rate

In a recent analysis, the professional services firm Deloitte highlighted a sustained disinflationary trend in Ghana, suggesting that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) may have ample opportunity to reinstate interest rate cuts as early as its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in July. This potential shift comes at a time when Deloitte forecasts that Ghana could conclude the year 2025 with an inflation rate in the single digits, which would fall below the BoG’s adjusted end-2025 target of 12%.

Deloitte projects that Ghana will likely end the year with single-digit inflation.

As reported by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), the inflation rate for June 2025 stands at 13.7%. This figure reflects a positive trajectory influenced by a marked decrease in the general price levels of essential goods, especially food items. Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, the Government Statistician, disclosed these findings during a press conference held in Accra on July 2, 2025. He attributed this decline in inflation—particularly over the past six months—to significant improvements in pricing dynamics, indicating a real and sustained shift in market conditions.

Dr. Iddrisu elaborated that recent data indicates a noteworthy drop in general price levels, with a reported deflation rate of 1.2 percent from May to June 2025. His comments underscore the prevailing trend of decreasing inflationary pressures which had dominated the previous months, suggesting a potential stabilization of the economy. “This downward inflationary trend over the last six months provides both consistency and assurance that we are witnessing a meaningful change in price dynamics,” he stated.

Despite the overall improvement, disparities exist across the country. The Upper West region has recorded the highest inflation rate at 32.3%, largely driven by soaring food and utility costs. Conversely, the Bono region enjoys a much lower inflation rate of 8.4%. This stark contrast highlights the regional economic challenges that continue to affect different parts of the country.

Analysts and economic observers view these developments with cautious optimism. The potential for interest rate adjustments by the Bank of Ghana could further influence borrowing costs and consumer spending, with the aim of stimulating economic growth. As the situation evolves, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the MPC meeting for insights into the central bank’s strategies in response to these changing economic conditions.