Ghana’s economic outlook for the coming years presents a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities, according to the recent report by the African Development Bank Group (AfDB). The bank forecasts a slowdown in the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with estimates placing growth at 4.5% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026. This deceleration is attributed primarily to the performance of the mining sector, a waning momentum in fiscal consolidation efforts, and the impacts of rising interest rates.
In terms of inflation, the report provides some optimism, indicating a reduction to 15.5% in 2025 and further down to 9% in 2026. This easing is expected to be driven by a tight monetary policy, less depreciation of exchange rates, and a decline in food prices, which could provide some relief to consumers and enhance economic stability.
On the fiscal front, the outlook appears positive as well. The AfDB projects a narrowing of the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3% in 2026, bolstered by ongoing efforts in fiscal consolidation and reforms in public financial management. Noteworthy measures include an enhanced fiscal responsibility framework and stricter regulations to manage expenditure commitments.
Additionally, the report highlights a promising trend in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, which is anticipated to decrease to 66.4% in 2025. This improvement is linked to successful debt restructuring initiatives with commercial creditors and increased revenues resulting from better tax compliance and lowered tax expenditures.
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Ghana's current account balance is also expected to exhibit strength, projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, thanks to improved exports in oil and gold.
However, the AfDB does caution that several downside risks loom on the horizon. Factors such as climate change, potential policy reversals, and the implications of increasing tariffs from the U.S. could introduce uncertainties that may affect this optimistic outlook. As Ghana navigates through these complexities, the commitment to fiscal discipline and economic reform will be crucial in shaping its path forward.